Main » 2012 » February » 7 » China how to skip "moderate income trap"
6:19 AM China how to skip "moderate income trap" |
| Countries like a car a few years this economy fast forward of luxury cars, just a few short years time through the excellent and accelerating performance, beyond the many developed countries, GDP ranking second in the world so far. Meanwhile, in 2009 China's per capita GDP also to step on to $3700 the candy. Can say the sports car suddenly scene infinite, but the scenery can you always keep, that really can't say. Because this luxury cars ahead, is about to meet a hole, if not good control of the steering wheel, may suddenly fell to the pit inside to scenery will to an abrupt end. The hole is the "moderate income trap". Development economics think, when a country more than $3855 per capita GDP after, if the economy can continue to develop, the industrial structure can smooth upgrade, so, the country will enter developed status. But history experience shows that this is just a phase of middle-income countries need to deal with so many complicated technical, economic, social and political challenges of the key stage, also need to solve the income distribution, urbanization, capital account liberalization, industrial upgrading and social service lag, carelessly a bit there could be a economic growth fell or long-term stagnation situation, so this one phase is called "moderate income trap". In fact, in the 1970 s, Brazil, Argentina, Malaysia, Thailand and other countries in the middle-income countries are entering the ranks plunged "moderate income trap", making these countries have a long economic situation, until 2007, they still wander in the per capita GDP3500 & ndash; The development level of $6000. Well, China's economic backwardness belongs to GanChaoXing economy. Since have lessons drawn from others' mistakes, then you should prepare for a rainy day, going into "moderate income trap" stage, adopt corresponding countermeasures. Avoid China economy this luxury sports car into a pit inside, so as to maintain sustainable development, and ultimately successful into developed countries stage. At present for China to concentrate on three main aspects. First of all, to solve the gap between rich and poor. In "middle income trap" countries the main reason is that the gap between rich and poor is too large. Latin America is poverty population to 227 million, accounting for 44% of the total population is a clear proof. Currently accepted the lowest gini coefficient has reached 0.47 as the world one of the biggest countries in the gap between rich and poor. So, want to avoid China's economy fell into a pit, it must accelerate the reform of the income distribution system, gradually increasing household income in the national income distribution of income, improve labor remuneration in primary distribution of income. By speeding the household registration system reform, promote the urbanization process, gradually eliminate the urban and rural structure, forms the integration of urban and rural economic and social development of new pattern. Finally let people inside the pocket money up, let narrow the gap between rich and poor. Next, want to hold good economic development of degrees. The first should grasp the development of industrialization and urbanization. Urbanization must have entity economy as a support, if simple for urbanization and urbanization, too radical urbanization although can pull a short time GDP growth, but if lack the necessary material base of urbanization and financial support, lack of industrialization support. Plus a large rural residents blindly into the city, it is easy to form of large area in the city in the slums, will directly affect social stability. The second to grasp the industrial upgrading and industrial transfer of degrees. In coastal areas do industrial upgrading, the Midwest to do undertake industrial transfer of preparation. To avoid the coastal economic industrial upgrading not gone up, and the coastal areas of traditional before the industry and transfer to other countries and areas of the phenomenon, led directly to the Chinese industry KongXinHua phenomenon, it will make China economy suddenly stall. Finally, to increase the strength of the transformation of the mode of economic development. That a successful "moderate income trap" across the country, there is the core technology support of leading industry. China will increase at this moment of biological engineering, new material, new energy and other emerging strategic industry investment, and strive to develop new economic growth point, completely change China the extensive style of economic growth mode, let China's sustainable economic development. If all three, insist to make to effect if China's economy this luxury sports car success over "moderate income trap" probability will be very high. |
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