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 In November, 2011, the national residents' consumption price total level together compares to soar 4.2%.
This is from this year CPI created the year of inside lately low, also created 6.5% apogees in a year from the July CPI lower for continuous four months.Gao Chu whole yearses control a target 4% of 0.2 percentage points, the Gao Chu Yi year expects to deposit 0.73.5% percentage points, Gao goes abroad the border inflation usual practice control the line is 3% of 1.2 percentage points.
Drop for CPI latest four months and create Detroit Tigers Hats over a this year a lately low elucidation our country macro view to adjust to control, repress an inflation work to obtain initial result.This makes to put control commodity price the macroscopic economic policy lord in the initial position the keynote and monetary policy trend face a new choice.Especially whether monetary policy should change direction is the hot issue of current controversy.
Two generous side of macroscopic economy seemed to change direction for monetary policy to provide foundation.First, drop for price index continuous four months, explain that the inflation pressure has to alleviate.At the same time, Be tended to balance along with the import and export, international capital run off China, the foreign exchange had a style to appear 8 for the very first time descending of the in the last yearseses in October, the central bank uses to throw in foundation currency to blunt add outside keep pressure expunction.
Secondly, empress half year Chinese economy is on one's own initiative adjusted to control, structure transformation and international local and disadvantageous factor influence, have already appeared a degree time to adjust continuously for a few quarters also enlarge trend, have outrun a macro view to adjust to control on one's own initiative and economy transform to control dint outside of visible result.PMI(purchase manager's index number) declined from 50.4 of October to 49 of November, is since February, 2009 for the very first time fall to break glory Shuai boundary.Reminbi exchange rate touches to fall to stop line continuously for 7 days.Last time appeared a similar circumstance still just 2008 was 12 beginning of the months, Reminbi exchange rate once touched continuously for four days at that time'fell to stop'.Last time was just financial crisis to break out completely, debt crisis in Europe to continuously ferment this time, twice fall to stop is all behavior in the market predominant of.This reminds China, have to keep macroscopic economy from appearing a depth fall.See from the real economy present condition, the real estate is adjusted to control not to be slacken influence, the building price continues to lower, the trade amount continue overcast, the land offer for sale a gold to continue to descend temporarily hard change, the small and medium enterprises conduct a difficult problem to still have no root amendment.The Bomb Hats steel business enterprise has already started overall deficiency.
Can not deny, two big macroscopic economic background seem to make the monetary policy tool once lose tight lead strict soil.But, have to wide awake ground to know, CPI is more significant to drop and represent inflation by the root be suppressed, help the factor of pushing the inflation to basically get rid of.The control line, international warnning line that 4.2% inflation rates still make sure at the beginning of the year is above, be still higher than to expect interest rate for a year, still keep taking interest rate.