Main » 2012 » January » 3 » How do we spend 2012
6:08 AM
How do we spend 2012
Today's stock market for a day, also do not wait until the accuracy of the news with lower, had to down to end dish down a barrel. Look, in the government before the handover, signs of loose currency is not clear. Although WuXiaoLing in say, the next year with the accuracy will cut a few times, but she says not calculate. In the currency deflation premise, we look to the next year's China's economy. We will look at how to spend the 2012 years.
Monetary tightening is a good thing, show that a currency is not collapse, big crisis will not appear, but also to realize a transformation of China's economy. In fact, the transformation of the economic best year is 2008 to 2009, but the opportunity missed. Prosperity and decline, the adjustment, the recovery, recycle, that is, the macro economy is regularity, and refused to adjust, is to enlarge investment bubble, now adjust up, more difficult.
Now let's look at the movements of the dollar. The dollar has gathered the strong rise in energy, the unemployment rate in U.S. has highs from 10.08% to 8.6%, and the continued to fall back. This NFL hats Thanksgiving, the total private consumption hit a record high housing index also rose, GDP steadily increased, plus the European debt problem, so, the dollar expected very strong. In the dollar index stand firm 81 points, China's B shares will have a decent prices, can be up to 85 point. About the European debt problem, and we need not too worry, without more panic. We analysis the debt problem, must consider a important factors, is the country's assets. European assets are very high quality. Take gold to say, Germany has 3401 tons, 2451 tons of Italy, France is 2435 tons, the whole of the euro area's gold reserves than the American gold reserves from more than one thousand tons. The debt crisis there are several ways, or France, Germany "absconded with the money", or Italy, Greece out of the euro. If the two methods all not accept, so, Italy and Greece selling gold, sell the bank assets. What would not trigger a global crisis.
Local debts. A lot of people just look at the debt, don't look at the local government assets, this year's interest expenses 30.5 billion RMB, is a small one thing, didn't have to sell assets can solve, about what crisis? Sensationalistic life. So, China's problems in where?
One is the indecisive decision-making to the house price bubble be a soft landing for the hope. The Japanese government met in China and is now exactly the same state, and practices is the land financing limit make ", also for all the real estate loans is a sword two section, don't give a penny loans, so, house price bubble soon burst, economy also quickly into adjustment. And a soft landing, is time consuming, with the result that is miss a chance of adjustment, finally trigger not just house prices to a soft landing, but the collapse of the currency.
2 it is our superstructure far can not adapt to the development of the economic basis. All the legal aside, a heart for economic growth, this is not just to bring the social values fission, also is the root of social unrest. Method the outline disorders, but also about what ethics? The developers to unused land two years no development gratis, said how many years, don't go to carry out, what is this behavior, said the light is not as a government, said to the people, is a heavy crime.
Three is our financial model must be recast. The A share in 2010 whole year the profits for 1.785 trillion yuan, the financial sector accounts for profit is 842.9 billion yuan; And reserve frozen funds in accordance with the 78.7 trillion is about 16.9 trillion, if 3.5% of the interest cost according to total about 590 billion yuan, according to an annual rate of total inter-bank money interest costs 846 billion yuan. The cost of the financial industry profits and reserve has devoured the almost all China industry profits. It means that China's interest rates are have serious problems.
Four is monetary growth must legislation. I made a survey of global monetary growth, not a country M2 growth is higher than GDP growth (CPI growth would be deducted from the actual growth) 4% (post-war German, Zimbabwe and other countries exceptions). We in 2009 M2 growth baseball hats actually higher than economic growth three times as much. This direct will endowment insurance, social security fund, housing accumulation fund, urban and rural residents' deposits depreciated.
Five is the release of must let go. To press, publishing, the cultural industry should be fully release, equal competition; The financial services industry, education, medical industry orderly release. Let countries and scholars from renmin step back and let the corporation and private further. This ability is internally invigorated. And this all looking forward to the one or two years to complete, China's economy can need not relying too heavily on real estate and the overseas market leading, people can also live in comfort.
Obviously, to complete the transformation is not 2012, but, we really can't drag it. In 2011 China's economy to the key words, I used to use a word, that is: consumption. Now, a year consumption in the past. To 2012? China's economic key word also may be a word: endure. The torment.
Views: 516 | Added by: fashionman | Tags: Society | Rating: 0.0/0
Total comments: 0
Name *:
Email *:
Code *: